Severe Weather Risk: Increasing next week

Increasing risks and some good chases during the last week of May

The flow aloft is forecast to split and amplify near the west coast and over the western states during the next five days.  A ridge aloft will be over the plains early this holiday weekend and this means that the winds will not be strong enough in the upper levels of the atmosphere for any significant severe weather.  But, by early next week the western plains will likely have good severe weather scenarios as the southern branch of the jet stream moves out over an increasingly moist and unstable air mass.  It will take many days for this storm to slowly move out into our region and this will mean three or four good chase days for the storm chasers.  We will update this forecast over the holiday weekend.  Look at the map attached that shows the developing split flow aloft.

Good  luck on your chases. We will be watching your streams.

Gary Lezak

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What is a Slight, Moderate or High Risk?

Slight, Moderate and High Risks are designations used by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, to designate progressively-higher levels of risks associated with severe thunderstorms, including damaging hail, high winds and tornadoes.  More explanation here.  One main difference between a Slight Risk, a Moderate Risk and a High Risk is the likelihood of severe storms and the number of severe storms expected to appear in a risk area.  There have been plenty of tornadoes spotted (and large ones too) on Slight Risk days.

Slight risks are quite common during severe-weather season.  You'll see them nearly every day most years. High risk areas may occur only a few to a few dozen times a year. 

Additionally, when there's NOT a severe-risk area issued by the SPC for a given day, the staff here at TornadoAlleyLIVE.com will label the day a "low" or "very low" risk.  These 2 terms aren't officially used by the SPC, but we consider "low" and "very low" to be additional tools to help you measure the opportunity to viewing LIVE tornado chases on this site.